Wheat output may exceed record official estimate
By Sandip Das
Despite temperature ruling above the normal range in the key wheat-growing regions in the last couple of weeks, the prospects of higher rabi output of the cereal looks bright. Crop conditions are robust while sowing area has been a new record this season. Meanwhile, procurement of grains at minimum support price (MSP) has gathered pace of late, officials and millers said.
“Wheat output is definitely likely to be better than the projected 115 million tonne (MT), itself a record, given the current crop conditions,” Ratan Tiwari, director, Indian Institute of Wheat and Barley Research, Karnal based institute under Indian Council for Agricultural Research (ICAR) told FE. Tiwari said while in some parts of key wheat growing regions the day temperature was a couple degrees above the normal but cooler night temperature helped in crop maturing. In addition, there are no reports of yellow rust diseases this season.
In the second advance estimate of major crops released by the agriculture ministry, the wheat production is projected at a record 115.3 million tonne (MT) during 2024-25 crop year (July-June), an increase of 2% over the previous year. Wheat sowing this season has increased to 32 million hectare (Mha) against 31.56 Mha last year and higher than the average sown area of the last five year.
The government’s estimate of a record wheat output allays fear about the impact of above normal temperature prevailing on crop yield although the trade has projected an output of 110 MT for current season.
Navneet Chitlangia, president, Roller Flour Millers Federation of India, said the annual domestic usage of wheat, including requirements for seeds and processing, is estimated at 102-103 MT. Considering the output estimates and the domestic requirements, prices of wheat will be stable this year, he said by adding that wheat arrivals in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Gujarat have been encouraging which lead to improved domestic supplies.
“So far the quality of wheat arrivals have been good as despite higher day temperatures, cooler night temperatures prevailed during the last six weeks or so have helped grain formation,” Chitlangia said.
The harvesting of wheat is commenced in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh, crop is at maturing state in Punjab and Haryana where crop harvest would commence by second week of April.
Procurement starts on a brisk note
The procurement of wheat by agencies including Food Corporation of India and state government agencies from the farmers for the 2025-26 marketing year has started on a brisk note. While purchase operations operations for marketing year 2025-26 (April-June) would officially commence from Tuesday, more than 0.8 million MT grain has been already purchased from farmers in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat in the current 2025-26 marketing season (April-June), against only 0.2 MT purchased a year ago.
The government is aiming to buy 31 MT of wheat purchased from farmers under MSP from mainly Punjab (12.4 MT), Haryana (7.5 MT), Madhya Pradesh (6 MT), Uttar Pradesh (3 MT), Rajasthan (2 MT), and Gujarat (0.1 MT) in the 2025-26 season.
At present, Food Corporation of India (FCI) has 12 MT of wheat stock against the buffer of 7.46 MT for April 1.
Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan government has announced a bonus payment of Rs 175/quintal and Rs 150/quintal over the minimum support price (MSP)of Rs 2425/quintal announced for the 2024-25 marketing season.
In 2024-25 marketing year, the agencies had purchased 26.6 MT of wheat while around 18.4 MT of grain is required for allocation under Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana or free ration scheme annually.
This article has been republished from The Financial Express.