Wheat and woes: Pakistan’s food security crisis is brewing
By Raja Muneeb
In the wheat fields of Punjab and the bazaars of Karachi, a crisis is unfolding, one that threatens not only the food on the nation’s tables, but the very economic and political stability of Pakistan. Once a country of relative wheat self-sufficiency, Pakistan now is on the edge of a food security disaster as a convergence of climate shocks, policy missteps, economic constraints, and global volatility push its wheat sector into unprecedented turmoil.
Wheat is more than a staple food in Pakistan as it provides 72 per cent of the caloric intake for the average citizen and is a key lifeline for rural livelihoods. Yet, from 1995 to 2025, Pakistan’s wheat journey has been one of fluctuating fortunes. While production climbed from 18 million metric tons in the late 1990s to a peak of 27 million metric tons in 2023, this growth has been erratic. It has been stifled by erratic monsoons, drought cycles, flash floods, pest outbreaks, and water scarcity. In 2024, that fragile system finally cracked.
Pakistan witnessed a sharp 11 per cent decline in wheat production, coupled with a failure by state institutions such as Pakistan Agriculture Storage and Services Corporation Ltd (PASSCO) and provincial food departments to meet procurement targets. That created a market vacuum that private hoarders and profiteers quickly filled. The price of wheat which was hovering around once at PKR 70/kg just three years prior soared to an eye watering PKR 400 to 450/kg in urban markets, triggering nationwide protests.
By mid-2024, long queues formed outside utility stores and subsidized markets. But for many, even subsidised wheat became elusive. As flour vanished from shelves and naan/roti prices doubled overnight, frustration boiled over. Tens of thousands took to the streets across Lahore, Islamabad, Multan, and Peshawar, and other towns and cities of Pakistan demanding immediate government intervention. Clashes erupted, roads were blocked, and the wheat crisis became a full blown political flashpoint.
Farmers, too, joined the protests. Under the banner of the Pakistan Kissan Ittehad (PKI), thousands rallied against what they described as an “anti-farmer agenda.” Their demands were clear, raise the wheat Minimum Support Price (MSP) to PKR 5,000 per 40 kg and ensure immediate procurement. What they received from the government, however, was total silence and a policy U-turn that permanently undermined Pakistan’s wheat sector.
In late 2024, amid IMF pressure to cut subsidies, the Government of Pakistan began rolling back the Minimum Support Price (MSP) mechanism for wheat, a policy that had long served as a financial safety net for millions of farmers. In February this year the Pakistan government formally withdrew the wheat MSP. The rationale given to the farmers though was that of textbook neoliberalism; a bid to remove market distortions, let demand and supply determine price, and reduce fiscal burdens.
But what this policy ignored is Pakistan’s structural agrarian reality, where fragmented markets, poor infrastructure, and the dominance of middlemen leave farmers vulnerable to exploitation.
The withdrawal of the Minimum Support Price (MSP) policy sets off a dangerous chain reaction across Pakistan’s agricultural and food systems. At the forefront of the crisis are smallholder farmers, who, in the absence of a guaranteed price floor, become vulnerable to exploitation by middlemen and private traders. These intermediaries often collude to suppress purchase prices, leaving farmers with little choice but to sell their wheat at a loss simply to repay input loans and survive the next cultivation cycle. With the state stepping back, the private sector fills the vacuum, but not in the public’s interest. Hoarders and speculative traders seize the opportunity to buy large quantities of wheat post-harvest, storing it until prices rise sharply. This creates an artificial scarcity that fuels price spikes and feeds into a broader inflationary spiral.
The elimination of MSP also striped the farming community of any predictability in income, turning wheat cultivation into a high risk gamble. Many farmers have abandoned wheat altogether, fearing financial ruin, a move that will only deepen national food shortages in the coming years. As domestic supply contracts and speculative pricing gains ground, the impact ripples beyond rural areas into urban centres. Wheat and flour prices become volatile and unaffordable, transforming what was once a staple into a luxury for Pakistan’s low income families. The urban poor and rural landless, already struggling with inflation, bear the brunt of this shift, facing rising levels of food insecurity, malnutrition, and hunger. In summary, the end of MSP has not only jeopardized farmer’s livelihoods but has also threatened the food security of millions across Pakistan.
Between 2021 and 2024, Pakistan witnessed an unprecedented surge in retail wheat prices, reflecting deep-rooted instability in the country’s agricultural supply chain and broader economic pressures. In 2021, wheat was available at approximately PKR 70 per kilogram. By 2022, this rose sharply to PKR 100 per kilogram, marking a 30 per cent increase. The trend worsened in 2023, with prices soaring to PKR 170 per kilogram, an alarming 70 per cent spike in just one year. However, 2024 brought the most dramatic escalation yet, as retail prices skyrocketed to between PKR 400 and PKR 450 per kilogram, representing a staggering 135 per cent jump. This four-year spiral has placed immense strain on household food budgets, pushing wheat a dietary staple out of reach for millions of Pakistanis and amplifying nationwide food insecurity.
Historically, a self-sufficient wheat producer, Pakistan has now become heavily reliant on imports to meet domestic demand. In 2023, the country imported 2.2 million metric tons of wheat. But with 2024’s production shortfall owing to damage to crops due to flash flooding, import needs may exceed well over 3 million metric tons in 2025.
But here is the bigger problem, Pakistan is financially broke. With foreign exchange reserves hovering below $9 billion, importing wheat at global rates especially amid high freight and dollar appreciation could push the economy toward insolvency. Every imported ton not only drains the national treasury but also competes with essential imports like fuel and medicine.
Recognising the scale and urgency of Pakistan’s food security crisis, the World Bank launched a $20 billion Country Partnership Framework (CPF) in early 2025. This ambitious initiative is designed to strengthen the country’s resilience across multiple sectors, with food security emerging as a central focus. Key components of the programme include the promotion of climate resilient agriculture to mitigate the impact of erratic weather patterns, the rehabilitation of aging and inefficient irrigation infrastructure to boost productivity, the implementation of digital procurement and supply chain tracking systems to enhance transparency and efficiency, and the improvement of market access for smallholder farmers to ensure fair pricing and sustainable livelihoods. This investment reflects a global recognition that Pakistan’s food crisis, if left unaddressed, poses not just a domestic threat but also a broader regional stability concern.
While the World Bank’s investment is a much needed lifeline, it is not a silver bullet. The success of the programme hinges on domestic reforms particularly restoring MSP, improving procurement, and curbing middleman monopolies.
A closer examination of the PASSCO reveals a pattern of chronic underperformance that has undermined the country’s food security efforts. Over the past several years, PASSCO has consistently failed to meet its wheat procurement targets. In 2020, it aimed to procure 1.8 million metric tons but managed only 1.17 million. Similarly, in 2022, it fell short by nearly half a million tons, collecting 1.26 million against a target of 1.7 million. The trend continued in 2023, with actual procurement at just 1.13 million metric tons against a goal of 1.8 million. These recurring shortfalls have left significant quantities of surplus wheat outside the safety of government reserves, exposing them to the grip of speculative traders and private hoarders instead of being secured through state controlled storage, a vulnerability that continues to weaken the country’s ability to manage supply shocks.
corrective measures are not implemented by the end of 2025. The country faces the looming threat of wheat stock depletion; as inadequate procurement fails to match domestic consumption needs raising the risk that reserves may be exhausted before the year’s end. This scarcity would likely trigger another steep rise in wheat prices, potentially soaring by 30 to 40 per cent in early 2026, further exacerbating poverty and deepening food insecurity. Simultaneously, the increasing reliance on costly wheat imports expected to exceed $1.5 billion poses a serious threat to the country’s already fragile foreign exchange reserves and could compromise its debt repayment ability.
On the domestic front, the widening disparity between rising production costs and stagnant support prices is already fuelling unrest in rural areas, with more farmer protests and supply chain disruptions on the horizon. Historically, such food insecurity precedes larger societal breakdowns, including riots, governance failures, and political instability. With all indicators flashing red, Pakistan is undeniably on a dangerous trajectory toward socio-economic turmoil.
Pakistan’s food security challenge is not just about wheat, it’s a test of governance, economic foresight, and political will. The removal of MSP, combined with failed procurement and excessive import reliance, is setting the stage for a national food emergency. The choice is stark, either to reform now or risk famine-like conditions, economic collapse, and widespread civil unrest. Wheat, once a symbol of self-reliance, has become the harbinger of crisis.
This article has been republished from The First Post.