Record wheat output may ease supply concerns; Rabi production seen at 114 MT

By Sandip Das

Amid concerns over wheat stocks plummeting to a seven-year-low, the government expects the current rabi crop to be robust, and yield and all-time output of 114 million tonne. This allays fears about shortage of the grain pushing the retail prices higher.

Wheat prices have remained elevated for more than year now, although the prices have eased a tad in the last couple of months due to a series of steps taken by the government, including aggressive open market sales, and imposition of stock limits.

Prolonged cold wave conditions prevailing in north India and absence of the dreaded yellow rust disease are expected to boost the standing wheat crop, Gyanendra Singh, director of Karnal (Haryana)-based Indian Institute of Wheat and Barley Research (IIWBR).

“With increase in area under wheat, conducive weather condition besides absence of any reports of yellow rust disease which adversely impacts the crops, overall yield is likely to increase significantly this season looking at the crop condition”, Singh said. IIWBR monitores the wheat crop on behalf of the government.

“Most of yellow rust attack cases are usually reported during late December and early January. This year, however, there are no reports of disease outbreak.

Agriculture ministry officials said they are closely monitoring the crop conditions and regular crop advisory has been issued to the farmers. Despite having a normal sowing of crops, yield in wheat was impacted because of excessive heat during the flowering stage in March in 2022 and unseasonal rains just prior to harvesting in 2023.

Wheat harvesting commences in Madhya Pradesh, a major producer of grain by middle of March, other key producing states Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan starting harvesting by end of March.

Food minister Piyush Goyal recently stated that the country is expected to harvest a record of 114 million tonne (MT) in the 2023-24 season (July-June) as estimated by the first advance estimate of foodgrain production by the agriculture ministry.

“Our informal queries from mandis across Punjab, Haryana and Madhya Pradesh have stated that wheat output will be highest ever and wheat prices may collapse,” Goyal had stated.

As per the agriculture ministry latest data, the wheat sowing this season (2023-224) was at a record 34 million hectare (mh) against 33.75 mh reported during the same period previous season. Wheat sowing so far is above the last five-year average of 30.73 mh.

A bumper harvest of wheat this season would give a boost to the government’s procurement drive as well as stocks which had declined to seven years low at 16.35 million tonne (MT) at the beginning of the month. Current wheat stock is against the buffer of 13.8 MT.

To curb the spike in prices, the government has been selling wheat in the open market from its stock since June and so far offloaded 6.67 MT of grain till last week.

The government is aiming at selling 10.1 MT of wheat from its surplus stock in the market till March 15.

The government has set a higher wheat production target of a record 114 MT for the 2023-24 crop year (July-June) against an estimated output of 110.5 MT in 2022-23.

Meanwhile, India Meteorological Department in its predictions has said Cold day to severe cold day conditions likely to continue to prevail over North India during next 2 days and decrease in intensity thereafter.

This article has been republished from The Financial Express.