Rice exports dip amid tariffs, global glut
Rice exports are expected to decline in the first half of 2026, following a 17.5% year-on-year drop to 530,287 tonnes in January, according to the Thai Rice Exporters Association.
Export value fell by 30.7% to 9.71 billion baht, down 23.9% in US dollar terms.
White rice exports, accounting for 45% of total shipments, declined by 14.8%, while Thai
rice dropped by 8.4% to 120,913 tonnes. Parboiled rice decreased by 2.5% to 72,462 tonnes, and fragrant rice fell by 31% to 29,390 tonnes. Two varieties saw growth: glutinous rice rose 13.5% to 10,421 tonnes, and Thai hom mali broken rice increased by 42.9% to 20,865 tonnes.
The country saw significant declines in exports to Iraq and the US, by 20.1% and 34.1%, respectively, while rice shipments to Malaysia soared by 116% as the country sought Thai rice to compensate for delayed deliveries from Pakistan. Exports to China also surged by 84.5%.
Charoen Laothammatas, president of the association, said exchange rates have a significant impact on rice exports amid intensifying competition in the global market.
“The baht is overvalued. We hope to see a more competitive exchange rate compared with other rice-exporting nations. Authorities should oversee the exchange rate to ensure stability and competitiveness,” he said, adding that a favourable rate would be 33–34 baht per dollar.
The association projects rice exports of 7.03 million tonnes this year, down 11% year-on-year, with export value expected to fall by 12.3% to 130 billion baht.
Chookiat Ophaswongse, honorary president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, said several factors are influencing rice exports this year, including a glut in key exporting and importing countries, US tariffs, and increasing self-sufficiency in food production among major importers such as Indonesia and the Philippines.
He said that while US tariffs have affected international trade, including Thai rice exports to the US, the exchange rate remains the most critical factor, making Thai rice comparatively more expensive than that of its competitors.
For instance, this month Thai hom mali rice is priced at UScopy,100 per tonne, while Vietnam’s premium fragrant rice is about $600-800 per tonne and Cambodia’s Malys Angkor fragrant rice is $830 per tonne.
“Cambodian fragrant rice may emerge as a competitor to Thai hom mali rice in the US this year, in addition to existing rivals such as Vietnam’s rice,” Mr Chookiat said.
Thailand typically exports more than 800,000 tonnes of rice to the US annually, including 600,000 tonnes of Thai hom mali rice.
He said that to maintain competitiveness in the global market, Thailand must offer rice at reasonable prices while maintaining fairly good quality.
Thailand is set to deliver the first shipment of 40,000 tonnes of rice under a government-to-government contract for 500,000 tonnes to China by the end of this month, with all shipments expected to be completed by the end of the year, according to the government.
This article has been republished from The Bangkok Post. link: https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/general/3205210/rice-exports-dip-amid-tariffs-global-glut. .