IGC revises 2026-27 global grain output higher
By Arvin Donley
Owing to upgraded production outlooks for maize, barley and wheat, the International Grains Council (IGC) raised its total grains crop production by 12 million tonnes from the previous month in its latest Grain Market Report.
The report, released on June 25, revised totals grains production for the 2026-27 marketing year to 2.426 billion tonnes. If realized, it still would be 2% below the record estimated total of 2.488 billion tonnes in 2025-26 and mark the first decline in four years.
“An El Niño event is now underway and is expected to strengthen through the second half of the year,” the IGC said. “While there is an increased chance of yield variability, especially for the next Southern Hemisphere harvests, the impact remains uncertain at this stage. There are concerns too about fertilizer affordability but with a more recent fall in input prices offering some relief.”
The IGC pegs global wheat production at 821 million tonnes, a 3% decline year on year, while corn output is projected at 1.310 billion tonnes, a drop of 2% compared to 2025-26.
With gains chiefly for maize and wheat, global consumption and trade are expected to reach all-time highs.
The Council anticipates a 3% increase in year-on-year soybean production to a record 442 million tonnes. Record trade and consumption are also forecast at 190 million tonnes and 445 million tonnes, respectively.
“Given the backdrop of sizeable availabilities, utilization is predicted at a fresh high, but with inventories likely to tighten,” the IGC said.
With wheat, maize, barley and soybean prices all falling in recent weeks, the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Price Index (GOI) declined by 4.7% from the previous month. Maize led the way with a 7.6% decline. The one outlier was rice, which saw prices increase by 5.4%.Even with the month-on-month decline, the overall index was up 3.6% year on year with soybeans (up 5.3%) and barley (up 7.1%) having the biggest increases.
This article has been republished from The World Grain.